Head and Shoulders Top
The head-and-shoulders pattern is one of the most popular and reliable chart patterns in technical analysis. And as one might imagine from the name, the pattern looks like a head with two shoulders.
Head and shoulders is a reversal pattern that, when formed, signals the security is likely to move against the previous trend. There are two versions of the head-and-shoulders pattern. The head-and-shoulders top is a signal that a security's price is set to fall, once the pattern is complete, and is usually formed at the peak of an upward trend. The second version, the head-and-shoulders bottom (also known as inverse head and shoulders), signals that a security's price is set to rise and usually forms during a downward trend.
Both of these head and shoulders have a similar construction in that there are four main parts to the head-and-shoulder chart pattern: two shoulders, a head and a neckline. The patterns are confirmed when the neckline is broken, after the formation of the second shoulder.
The head and shoulders are sets of peaks and troughs. The neckline is a level of support or resistance. The head and shoulders pattern is based on Dow Theory's peak-and-trough analysis. An upward trend, for example, is seen as a period of successive rising peaks and rising troughs. A downward trend, on the other hand, is a period of falling peaks and troughs. The head-and-shoulders pattern illustrates a weakening in a trend where there is deterioration in the peaks and troughs.
Head and Shoulders Top
Again, the head-and-shoulders top signals to chart users that a security's price is likely to make a downward move, especially after it breaks below the neckline of the pattern. Due to this pattern forming mostly at the peaks of upward trends, it is considered to be a trend-reversal pattern, as the security heads down after the pattern's completion
This pattern has four main steps for it to complete itself and signal the reversal. The first step is the formation of the left shoulder, which is formed when the security reaches a new high and retraces to a new low. The second step is the formation of the head, which occurs when the security reaches a higher high, then retraces back near the low formed in the left shoulder. The third step is the formation of the right shoulder, which is formed with a high that is lower than the high formed in the head but is again followed by a retracement back to the low of the left shoulder. The pattern is complete once the price falls below the neckline, which is a support line formed at the level of the lows reached at each of the three retracements mentioned above.
Again, there are four steps to this pattern, starting with the formation of the left shoulder, which occurs when the price falls to a new low and rallies to a high. The formation of the head, which is the second step, occurs when the price moves to a low that is below the previous low, followed by a return to the previous high. This move back to the previous high creates the neckline for this chart pattern. The third step is the formation of the right shoulder, which sees a sell-off, but to a low that is higher than the previous one, followed by a return to the neckline. The pattern is complete when the price breaks above the neckline.
The Breaking of the Neckline and the Potential Return Move
As seen from the above, the head-and-shoulders pattern is complete when the neckline is broken; the trend is then considered reversed, and the security should be heading in a new direction. The point of breakout is when most traders following the pattern would enter the security.
However, the security will not always just continue in the direction suggested by the pattern after the breakout. For this reason it's important to be aware of what is known as a "throwback" move. This situation occurs when the price breaks through the neckline, setting a new high or low (depending on the pattern), followed by a retreat back to the neckline.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Analyzing Chart Patterns: Head And Shoulders
Analyzing Chart Patterns: Double Top And Double Bottom
Analyzing Chart Patterns: Double Bottom
The double top and double bottom are another pair of well-known chart patterns whose names don’t leave much to the imagination. These two reversal patterns illustrate a security's attempt to continue an existing trend. Upon several attempts to move higher, the trend is reversed and a new trend begins. These chart patterns formed will often resemble what looks like a “W” (for a double bottom) or an “M” (double top).
Double Top
The double-top pattern is found at the peaks of an upward trend and is a clear signal that the preceding upward trend is weakening and that buyers are losing interest. Upon completion of this pattern, the trend is considered to be reversed and the security is expected to move lower.
The first stage of this pattern is the creation of a new high during the upward trend, which, after peaking, faces resistance and sells off to a level of support. The next stage of this pattern will see the price start to move back towards the level of resistance found in the previous run-up, which again sells off back to the support level. The pattern is completed when the security falls below (or breaks down) the support level that had backstopped each move the security made, thus marking the beginnings of a downward trend.
It's important to note that the price does not need to touch the level of resistance but should be close to the prior peak. Also, when using this chart pattern one should wait for the price to break below the key level of support before entering. Trading before the signal is formed can yield disastrous results, as the pattern is only setting up the possibility for the trend reversal and could trade within this banded range for some time without falling through.
This pattern is a clear illustration of a battle between buyers and sellers. The buyers are attempting to push the security but are facing resistance, which prevents the continuation of the upward trend. After this goes on a couple of times, the buyers in the market start to give up or dry up, and the sellers start to take a stranglehold of the security, sending it down into a new downtrend.
Again, volume should be an important focus as one should look for an increase in volume when the security falls below the support level. Also, as in other chart patterns, do not be alarmed if there is a return to the previous support level that has now become a resistance level in the newly established trend.
Double Bottom
This is the opposite chart pattern of the double top as it signals a reversal of the downtrend into an uptrend. This pattern will closely resemble the shape of a "W".
The double bottom is formed when a downtrend sets a new low in the price movement. This downward move will find support, which prevents the security from moving lower. Upon finding support, the security will rally to a new high, which forms the security's resistance point. The next stage of this pattern is another sell-off that takes the security down to the previous low. These two support tests form the two bottoms in the chart pattern. But again, the security finds support and heads back up. The pattern is confirmed when the price moves above the resistance the security faced on the prior move up.
Remember that the security needs to break through the support line to signal a reversal in the downward trend and should be done on higher volume. As in the double top, do not be surprised if the price returns to the breakout point to test the new support level in the upward trend.
Price Objective and Adjustments
It's important to get an idea as to the size of the resulting move once the signal has been formed. In both the double top and double bottom, the initial price objective can be measured by taking the price distance between the support and resistance levels or the range that chart pattern trades.
For example, assume in a double top that the upward trend peaks at $50 and retraces to $40 to form the support level. Assuming everything follows through on the chart pattern and the support level is broken at $40, the initial price objective should be set at $30 ($40-$10).
Often in technical analysis and chart patterns, we're presented with an ideal chart setup; but in reality the pattern doesn't always look as perfect as it's supposed to. In double tops and double bottoms one thing to remember is that the price on the second test does not always need to reach the same distance as the first test.
Another problem that can occur is the second testing point, where the top or bottom actually breaks the level that the first top or bottom test created. If this occurs, it can give a signal that the previous trend will continue - instead of reverse - as the pattern suggests. However, don’t be too quick to abandon the pattern as it could still materialize.
If the price does, in fact, move above the prior test, look to see if the move was accompanied by large volume, suggesting a trend continuation. For example, if on the second test of a double bottom the price falls below the support line on heavy volume, it is a good sign the downward trend will continue and not reverse. If the volume is very weak, it could just be a last attempt to continue the downward trend, but the trend will ultimately reverse.
The double tops and double bottoms are strong reversal patterns that can provide trading opportunities. But it is important to be careful with these patterns as the price can often move either way. Consequently, it's important that the trade is implemented once the support/resistance line is broken.
Analyzing Chart Patterns: Triangles
Ascending Triangle :
There are three types of triangles, which vary in construct and significance: the symmetrical triangle, the descending triangle and the ascending triangle.
Symmetrical triangle
The symmetrical triangle is mainly considered to be a continuation pattern that signals a period of consolidation in a trend followed by a resumption of the prior trend. It is formed by the convergence of a descending resistance line and an ascending support line. The two trendlines in the formation of this triangle should have a similar slope converging at a point known as the apex. The price of the security will bounce between these trendlines, towards the apex, and typically breakout in the direction of the prior trend.
If preceded by a downward trend, the focus should be on a break below the ascending support line. If preceded by an upward trend, look for a break above the descending resistance line. However, this pattern doesn't always lead to a continuation of the previous trend. A break in the opposite direction of the prior trend should signal the formation of a new trend.
Above is an example of a symmetrical triangle that is preceded by an upward trend. The first part of this pattern is the creation of a high in the upward trend, which is followed by a sell-off to a low. The price then moves to another high that is lower than the first high and again sells off to a low, which is higher than the previous low. At this point the trendlines can be drawn, which creates the apex. The price will continue to move between these lines until breakout.
The pattern is complete when the price breaks out of the triangle - look for an increase in volume in the direction of the breakout. This pattern is also susceptible to a return to the previous support or resistance line that it just broke through, so make sure to watch for this level to hold if it does indeed break out.
Ascending Triangle
The ascending triangle is a bullish pattern, which gives an indication that the price of the security is headed higher upon completion. The pattern is formed by two trendlines: a flat trendline being a point of resistance and an ascending trendline acting as a price support.
The price of the security moves between these trendlines until it eventually breaks out to the upside. This pattern will typically be preceded by an upward trend, which makes it a continuation pattern; however, it can be found during a downtrend
As seen above, the price moves to a high that faces resistance leading to a sell-off to a low. This follows another move higher, which tests the previous level of resistance. Upon failing to move past this level of resistance, the security again sells off - but to a higher low. This continues until the price moves above the level of resistance or the pattern fails.
The most telling part of this pattern is the ascending support line, which gives an indication that sellers are starting to leave the security. After the sellers are knocked out of the market, the buyers can take the price past the resistance level and resume the upward trend.
The pattern is complete upon breakout above the resistance level, but it can fall below the support line (thus breaking the pattern), so be careful when entering prior to breakout.
Descending triangle
The descending triangle is the opposite of the ascending triangle in that it gives a bearish signal to chartists, suggesting that the price will trend downward upon completion of the pattern. The descending triangle is constructed with a flat support line and a downward-sloping resistance line.
Similar to the ascending triangle, this pattern is generally considered to be a continuation pattern, as it is preceded by a downward trendline. But again, it can be found in an uptrend
The first part of this pattern is the fall to a low that then finds a level of support, which sends the price to a high. The next move is a second test of the previous support level, which again sends the stock higher - but this time to a lower level than the previous move higher. This is repeated until the price is unable to hold the support level and falls below, resuming the downtrend.
This pattern indicates that buyers are trying to take the security higher, but continue to face resistance. After several attempts to push the stock higher, the buyers fade and the sellers overpower them, which sends the price lower
Analyzing Chart Patterns: Flags And Pennants
Analyzing Chart Patterns: Pennants
The flag and pennant patterns are two continuation patterns that closely resemble each other, differing only in their shape during the pattern's consolidation period. This is the reason the terms flag and pennant are often used interchangeably. A flag is a rectangular shape, while the pennant looks more like a triangle.
These two patterns are formed when there is a sharp price movement followed by generally sideways price movement, which is the flag or pennant. The pattern is complete when there is a price breakout in the same direction of the initial sharp price movement. The following move will see a similarly sharp move in the same direction as the prior sharp move. The complete move of the chart pattern - from the first sharp move to the last sharp move - is referred to as the flag pole.
The flag or pennant is considered to be flying at half-mast, as the distance of the initial price movement is thought to be roughly equal to the proceeding price move. The reason these patterns form is that after a large price movement, the market consolidates, or pauses, before resuming the initial trend.
The Flag
The flag pattern forms what looks like a rectangle. The rectangle is formed by two parallel trendlines that act as support and resistance for the price until the price breaks out. In general, the flag will not be perfectly flat but will have its trendlines sloping.
In general, the slope of the flag should move in the opposite direction of the initial sharp price movement; so if the initial movement were up, the flag should be downward sloping.
The buy or sell signal is formed once the price breaks through the support or resistance level, with the trend continuing in the prior direction. This breakthrough should be on heavier volume to improve the signal of the chart pattern.
The Pennant
The pennant forms what looks like a symmetrical triangle, where the support and resistance trendlines converge towards each other. The pennant pattern does not need to follow the same rules found in triangles, where they should test each support or resistance line several times
Also, the direction of the pennant is not as important as it is in the flag; however, the pennant is generally flat.
General Ideas
While the construct of the pause in the trend is different for the flag and pennant, the attributes of the chart patterns themselves are similar. It is vital that the price movement prior to the flag or pennant be a strong, sharp move.
Typically, these patterns take less time to form during downtrends than in uptrends. In terms of pattern length, they are generally short-term patterns lasting one to three weeks, but can be formed over longer periods.
The volume, as with most breakout signals, should be seen as strong during the breakout to confirm the signal. Upon breakout, the initial price objective is equal to the distance of the prior move added to the breakout point. For example, if a prior sharp up movement was from $30 to $40, then the resulting price objective from a price breakout of $38 would be $48 ($38+$10).
Analyzing Chart Patterns: Gaps and examples
A gap in a chart is essentially an empty space between one trading period and the previous trading period. They usually form because of an important and material event that affects the security, such as an earnings surprise or a merger agreement.
This happens when there is a large-enough difference in the opening price of a trading period where that price and the subsequent price moves do not fall within the range of the previous trading period. For example, if the price of a company’s stock is trading near $40 and the next trading period opens at $45, there would be a large gap up on the chart between these two periods, as shown by the figure below.
Gap price movements can be found on bar charts and candlestick charts but will not be found on point-and-figure or basic line charts. The reason for this is that every point on both point-and-figure charts and line charts are connected.
It is often said when referring to gaps that they will always fill, meaning that the price will move back and cover at least the empty trading range. However, before you enter a trade that profits the covering, note that this doesn’t always happen and can often take some time to fill.
There are four main types of gaps: common, breakaway, runaway (measuring), and exhaustion. Each are the same in structure, differing only in their location in the trend and subsequent meaning for chartists.
Analyzing Chart Patterns: Triple Tops And Bottoms
Analyzing Chart Patterns: Triple Bottom :
This chart pattern represents the market's attempt to move a security in a certain direction. After three failed attempts, the buyers (in the case of a top) or sellers (in the case of a bottom) give up, and the opposing group in the market takes a hold of the security, sending it downward (sellers) or upward (buyers).
Triple Top
This bearish reversal pattern is formed when a security that is trending upward tests a similar level of resistance three times without breaking through. Each time the security tests the resistance level, it falls to a similar area of support. After the third fall to the support level, the pattern is complete when the security falls through the support; the price is then expected to move in a downward trend.
The first step in this pattern is the creation of a new high in an uptrend that is stalled by selling pressure, which forms a level of resistance. The selling pressure causes the price to fall until it finds a level of support, as buyers move back into the security. The buying pressure sends the price back up to the area of resistance the security previously met. Again, the sellers enter the market and send the security back down to the support level.
This up-and-down movement is repeated for the third time; but this time the buyers, after failing three times, give up on the security, and the sellers take over. Upon falling through the level of support, the security is expected to trend downward.
This pattern can be difficult to spot in the early stages as it will initially look like a double-top pattern, which was discussed in a previous section. The most important thing here is that one waits for the price to move past the level of resistance before entering the security, as the security could actually just end up being range-bound, where it trades between the two levels for some time.
In the triple-top formation, each test of resistance at the upper end should be marked with declining volume at each successive peak. And again, when the price breaks below the support level, it should be accompanied by high volume.
Once the signal is formed, the price objective is based on the size of the chart pattern or the price distance between the level of resistance and support. This is then deducted from the breakout point.
Triple Bottom
This bullish reversal pattern has all of the same attributes as the triple top but signals a reversal of a downward trend. The triple-bottom pattern illustrates a security that is trading in a downtrend and attempts to fall through a level of support three times, each time moving back to a level of resistance. After the third attempt to push the price lower, the pattern is complete when the price moves above the resistance level and begins trading in an upward trend.
This pattern begins by setting a new low in a downtrend, which is followed by a rally to a high. This sets up the range of trading for the triple-bottom pattern. After hitting the high, the price again comes under selling pressure, which sends it back down to the previous low. Buyers again move back into the security at this support level, sending the price back up again, usually to the previous high.
This is repeated a third time, but after failing again to move to a new low, the pattern is complete when the security moves above the resistance level to begin trading in an uptrend.
In this pattern, volume plays a role similar to the triple top, declining at each trough as it tests the support level, which is a sign of diminishing selling pressure. Again, volume should be high on a breakout above the resistance level on the completion of the pattern.
The price objective will also initially be calculated as the distance of the chart pattern added to the price breakout. So if the chart pattern is formed between $50 and $30 at a price breakout of $50 the price objective is $70 ($50+$20).
Meaning Behind Triple Tops and Bottoms
The significance of these two formations is that an established trend has hit a major section of support/resistance, which stops the trend's ability to continue. This is an indication that the buying or selling pressure that is supporting the trend is beginning to weaken. It also is an indication that the opposite pressure is gaining strength.
The chart pattern is signaling that there is a shift in the supply and demand of the security and of the balance between buyers and sellers. When a reversal signal is formed in a triple top, there is a shift from buyers moving the security upward to sellers moving the security downward
Analyzing Chart Patterns: Round Bottoms
A rounding-bottom pattern looks similar to a cup and handle, but without the handle. The basic formation of a rounding bottom comes from a downward price movement to a low, followed by a rise from the low back to the start of the downward price movement - forming what looks like a rounded bottom.
The pattern should be preceded by a downtrend but will sometimes be preceded by a sideways price movement that formed after a downward trend. The start of the rounding bottom (its left side) is usually caused by a peak in the downward trend followed by a long price descent to a new long-term low.
The time distance from the initial peak to the long-term low is considered to be half the distance of the rounding bottom. This helps to give chartists an idea to as to how long the chart pattern will last or when the pattern is expected to be complete, with a breakout to the upside. For example, if the first half of the pattern is one year, then the signal will not be formed until around a year later.
In terms of the chart pattern's quality, the two stages of the rounding bottom should be similar in length. If the price were to rise too quickly from the low to the prior peak, the strength of the chart pattern would be diminished. This does not mean that they must be equal, but the trend should illustrate a cup shape on the chart.
The way in which the price moves from peak to low and from low to second peak may cause some confusion as the long-term nature of the pattern can display several different price movements. The price movement does not necessarily move in a straight line but will often have many ups and downs. However, the general direction of the price movement (either up or down) is important, depending on the stage of the pattern.
Volume is one of the most important confirming measures for this pattern where volume should be high at the initial peak (or start of the pattern) and weaken as the price movement heads toward the low. As the price moves away from the low to the price level set by the initial peak, volume should be rising.
Breakouts in chart patterns should be accompanied by a large increase in volume, which helps to strengthen the signal formed by the breakout. Once the price moves above the peak that was established at the start of the chart pattern, the downward trend is considered to have reversed and a buy signal is formed.